The New York Mets are in the postseason for the first time since 2006, and their fans couldn’t be more thrilled. With a strong group of young pitchers leading the way, the Mets seem poised to make a serious splash in October. In fact, the Mets may be the team that benefits most from the structure of the postseason: with breaks between every game, teams will shorten their rotations, and the Mets will have a young stud on the mound just about every single night.
The Mets have to be thrilled that they can start Jacob DeGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, or Noah Syndergaard in every game they play this postseason. But with the wealth of options comes a unique problem: how will the Mets order their postseason rotation?
Who’s the Ace?
Mets fans have presumed for a few years now that their postseason ace would be Matt Harvey. It was Harvey that generated buzz from the start, and his excellent performance in 2013 seemed to cement his status.
But with Harvey out recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2014, another potential ace emerged. Jake DeGrom won the National League rookie of the year in 2014, and he’s had a very strong 2015. This season, DeGrom leads the Mets starting rotation in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. Statistically, he’s their ace; culturally, Harvey is.
It’s worth noting that this year’s opening day starter was Bartolo Colon, so the Mets brass chose not to christen either of the young guns an ace at the start of the season. They’ll have to chose now, though. Who will it be?
What About Syndergaard’s Splits?
Let’s put aside the problem of the Mets’ top two guys for a moment. At least we know that Noah Syndergaard should pitch third.
Now that we know the Dodgers will have home-field advantage in the NDLS. That means the third pitcher would pitch in a home game. And Syndergaard’s home/away splits show that he should be kept in Citi Field.
At home, Syndergaard has a 2.46 ERA. Away, that turns into 4.23. Noah is 7-2 at home and 2-5 in away games. He’s pitched 18 fewer innings away, yet has given up 14 more home runs on the road.
The good news for Mets fans is that advanced stats exonerate Syndergaard a bit: his FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is only 0.33 higher on the road, which isn’t that terrible. And Matz, at least, doesn’t have horrible home/away splits; it’s safe to pitch him fourth.
Our solution
Harvey may have the buzz, but DeGrom has the stats; I would pitch Jake first. As for Syndergaard, I think that Harvey’s stats are more important than Syndergaard’s splits, and I’m putting my faith in the stat-heads by trusting that FIP tells the real story. Here’s our rotation:
- Jacob DeGrom
- Matt Harvey
- Noah Syndergaard
- Steven Matz
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it – but I don’t envy the Mets front office and skipper Terry Collins, who will have to do this for real.
1 Comment