The days are starting to get a little bit shorter and the air has that evening bite of crispness that we associate with the month of October. It’s hard to believe that We are fully in autumn and our favorite –and not so favorite—teams are chasing the AL and NL pennants.
Tuesday, October 3rd – Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, October 4th – Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Twins-Yankees
The Twinkies are back in the Post-Season for the first time in seven years … albeit just at the very edge of the playoffs, it still counts! They’ll have a tough task on Tuesday as they’ll be guests of the Bronx Bombers over on East 161st Street in the Bronx.
Minnesota will most likely look to Ervin Santana with Jose Berrios first in line in the Bullpen should the Yankees bats come alive during early innings. Santana does pitch noticeably better away than at home. The 34-year-old righty sports 10 wins outside of Target Field with a 2.71 ERA.
The Yankees counter another right-hander, Severino, who is holding a 3.71 home ERA and an 8-5 home record. I don’t believe there is a notable pitching advantage for either team, but one thing to note is the Yanks are 48-27 (64% win rate) when listed as ‘favorites’ in Yankee Stadium, review BetOnline to see who is listed as MLB favorites & underdogs, while the Twins are near evens at 31-30 (50.8%) as away dogs.
It will be interesting to see how the Yankees adjust their lineup … if they put Headley in front of Judge, who has only faced Santana once, but batted .333 with a hit and a run (Headley is .308 career vs. Santana and also scored a run against in their last bout). When all is said and done, I believe the home-bats will get the job done. I predict that after a valiant effort, the Bronx Bombers will head to Cleveland to Play the Indians in the ALDS on Thursday, October 5th. Look for runs coming in before the 5th inning and both teams going deep into their respective bullpens. This should be an exciting, 8-run or more showdown.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
The winner of the NL play-in gets the privilege of trying their luck against the Devious Dodgers in the NLDS, starting on Friday, October 6th. The Diamondbacks have come out on top in the last two meetings with the Rockies and are 11-8 overall. It will be a tough test for the Rockies bats as the Dbacks are turning to Zack Greinke, who has looked in top-form this. With a 2.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and striking out more batters than any season since 2009 (215). Greinke has allowed an OBP of .241 against the Twins this season. After taking a 6-hit, 2-run loss vs. the Royals on Saturday, you have to think that Greinke will be determined to get some bounce-back revenge at the expense of the Rockies.
So far, there has not been an official declaration, but the most likely candidate to toe the rubber as Greinke’s counter is Jon Gray. Grey is 10-4 in 2017 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Through 72 Arizona at-bats, Grey has managed to keep the batting average at a commensurate .264 and .308 OBP by only giving up 19 hits and 7 runs.
The Dbacks are 38-21-0 (64.4% win rate) as favorites at home this season, and I do believe they will be listed as the favs here. Similar to the Twins, the Rockies are middle-margin as road-dogs, winning 29 and losing 27 (51.8% win rate).
Despite the fact the situational stats lean more towards the Diamondbacks, I predict that the Rockies will tap the desert and bring a little bit of that cold can magic with them into Chase Field and squeak out the win.
ALDS – Yankees-Indians & Red Sox-Astros
NLDS – Rockies-Dodgers & Cubs-Nationals
