If someone has to replace Francisco, it’s gotta be Parnell

Based on the events of the past three days (and some other events before then), it might be time for Terry Collins to make some changes to the Mets bullpen. Frank Francisco has done a terrible job in the ninth inning so far, but that doesn’t mean that moving him to the seventh or eighth will automatically straighten him out?

Just leaving him in the ninth would almost definitely result in Francisco getting better results than he has. His past performance is evidence of this.

While pitching in the hitter’s havens of Arlington and Toronto for the past four seasons, Francisco has not once had a season ERA above 4.00. His ERAs for the past four seasons are 3.13, 3.83, 3.76 and 3.55. Sure, those aren’t figures that will remind anyone of Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon, but that track record is just as good as anyone else in the Mets bullpen.

Francisco’s FIP and xFIP were below 4.00 for all four years as well. It doesn’t make sense for Francisco’s ERA to suddenly blow up to while pitching in a pitcher’s park in the inferior National League. Even if you believe that pitching in the ninth inning is more difficult than the eighth or that pitching in New York is tougher because of enhanced media pressure (there’s no evidence of either), the jump in ERA is still more likely the result of a small sample size.

If Terry Collins does get impatient and decides that now is the time to change his closer, let’s hope he decides to go with the more talented Bobby Parnell instead of the more experienced Jon Rauch.

Rauch has been pretty good this season, with a 2.93 ERA in 15.1 innings pitched, but there’s a couple of red flags that indicate his ERA could be going up soon. First of all, Rauch doesn’t have very good stuff so far this season. His strikeouts per nine innings is down to 4.11 from a career average of 7.14, which means Rauch is missing less bats and allowing a lot of contact. The low ERA is probably the result of a .235 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Although Rauch does have a relatively low career BABIP against him of .278, the .235 of this season is very likely unsustainable.

Also, Rauch is a fly ball pitcher who hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season. Over his career, Rauch’s performance has bounced up and down with the amount of homers he’s allowed. Although, this is something a pitcher can sometimes control, it’s a bad combination for someone to have a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate. That’s what Rauch is working with this season, and it’s a good reason to leave him out of high-leverage situations.

Parnell, on the other hand, playing the best baseball of his career. He’s striking out about one batter per inning while working on a career low 1.69 walks per nine. A 53.1% ground ball rate and a 2.25 ERA (2.36 FIP) are also great signs for the Mets future closer.

Because Francisco’s ERA is not going to stay at 8.56, Terry Collins will be praised no matter what he does. Leave Francisco in the ninth, and Collins’ faith will be rewarded. Move Francisco to the seventh or eighth, and he’ll pitch better in the new role. The only thing Collins shouldn’t do is move someone who isn’t Bobby Parnell into the closer’s role.