The St. Louis Cardinals may soon have home field locked up throughout the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean that the rest of the National League isn’t trying to earn some home cooking of their own. If the National League Division Series is between the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers – and a Mets vs. Dodgers matchup seems all but certain at this point in the season – then there will be an exciting race for home field advantage going on at down the stretch this season. Both teams will want a potentially crucial extra home game in the NLDS, and very little separates the two teams. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Records
Los Angeles Dodgers
85-65, .570
New York Mets
85-66, .567
The Mets are .5 games behind the Dodgers right now, and Dodger’s advantage is in the loss column. That means, of course, that the Dodgers control their own destiny in this contest.
Remaining schedule
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Arizona Diamondbacks (2 games remaining of a 4 game series)
@ Colorado Rockies (3 games)
@ San Francisco Giants (4 games)
San Diego Padres (3 games)
New York Mets:
Atlanta Braves (1 game remaining of a 3 game series)
@ Cincinnati Reds (4 games)
@ Philadelphia Phillies (3 games)
Washington Nationals (3 games)
Both teams have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. The best two teams on the schedules are each team’s nearest division rival: the San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals (79-71 and 78-72, respectively). The Dodgers have four games against their rivals, but the Mets only have three; the Mets get the Nats at home, while the Dodgers have to play the Giants away.
The worst two teams on either schedule are also the worst two teams in the National League: the Braves and the Phillies. The Mets get them both.
Other factors
Both the Dodgers and Mets are pretty well assured of their postseason slots. For what it’s worth (which is less than a 1% chance at the postseason), the Nationals are half a game closer to the Mets than the Giants are to the Nationals, while the Giants have one more head-to-head shot at the leaders than the Nationals will get.
Perhaps a more important factor than the competition is the internal struggle that the Mets are having with ace pitcher Matt Harvey’s innings count. Harvey left his last start after five innings, and the Yankees beat up the Mets’ middle relievers for 11 runs. Harvey will make at least one more abbreviated start this year.
So who takes home field?
The Dodgers have a half a game in hand and don’t have the Mets’ Harvey problem, but we expect the Mets will be selling home field tickets for the NLDS. That’s because of their cakewalk schedule down the stretch and the Dodgers’ four-game rivalry series with the Giants. The Mets-Nationals series just doesn’t compare: the Nats will probably be eliminated by the time they play, and the teams don’t have the historic rivalry that the Giants and Dodgers do. The Giants would love to play a part in spoiling the Dodgers’ shot at home field, and we think that they will do just that.
