Slowly but surely, Lucas Duda has emerged into the middle of the order hitter that this team has needed him to be. Currently sitting at 14 HRs and 48 RBIs, Duda is on pace for 24 HRs and 83 RBIs. Both of these totals would shatter his previous career highs.
Duda’s triple slash line at the moment is .254/.351/.478 and that is good for an .829 OPS. At the beginning of the season, every single Mets fan would have signed up for this level of production out of the first base position. In terms of WAR, Duda has been the 11th most productive player at first base in all of the majors. And if it weren’t for his below average defense, that ranking would be even higher.
Now the real question is, what changes has Duda made that has allowed him to achieve this level of production? The answer might surprise you.
Duda’s batting average and on base percentage are slightly improved compared to his career averages, but not improved enough to point to them as the main sign of improvement. His slugging percentage is up, which makes sense because he is hitting more balls over the wall then past seasons.
The main difference I see between 2014 Duda and the Duda of the past is the situational hitting numbers. With the bases empty Duda is batting .227, and with men on base Duda is batting .287, a whole 60 points higher. This is a major difference than years past, as these numbers used to be flipped. This has led to his high RBI total in 2014.
Another reason that Duda has been successful is simpler than any stat you can think of. The fact that Duda has actually had consistent playing time should not be understated. This is the first time Duda has been a “starter” for more than a month at a time, and he has shown that he can play when he is not worrying about if he is going to be in the lineup.
Duda’s consistent playing time along with his improved situational hitting has gifted the Mets with an average first basemen at worst. The fact is that you could do a lot worse than what Duda is giving the Mets. There is no reason that Duda can not be a long term answer at first base, and right now he is showing it.
And one last note: Duda is currently outproducing Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard. So it is safe to say he is doing something right.
