Editors Note: Check out more of Tejesh’s fantastic work covering the Mets minor league system over at his website, Mets Prospect Hub and his first Down on the Farm report for the Stache will be on May 18th.
*Numbers in parenthesis are MPHs Preseason Prospect Rankings.
Las Vegas 51s
(1)Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is the Mets top prospect and is poised to make his major league debut in the middle of the 2014 season.
(4)Rafael Montero. Montero is MPHs #4 prospect, and is also pitching in AAA. He is ready right now to make his major league debut, and should do so sometime this season.
(13)Jacob deGrom. deGrom’s future home is likely in the bullpen as a late inning reliever, but so far in 2014, he has pitched arguably the best of the Vegas Trio. Featuring a fastball in the mid 90s and a slider, he should make his MLB debut sometime in the summer of 2014, likely out of the pen.
(39)Logan Verrett. Verrett has been pitching well in the Vegas’ rotation, but his future is also likely in the bullpen, likely a middle reliever. He will make his MLB debut no later than 2015.
Binghamton Mets
Most of the pitching prospects here will most likely end up middle relievers.
(40)Matt Bowman. Bowman’s one who has a shot to remain a starter, mostly due to his outstanding command, and solid 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, changeup). He should make it to AAA this season, and be poised to make his MLB debut sometime in 2015.
Rainy Lara. Lara is likely ticketted for the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combo will play up. Look for him to make a push for a bullpen spot in 2015, but likely open in AAA that season.
Hansel Robles. Robles features a low 90s fastball, slider, and changeup. His changeup lags behind his other two pitches, and his future is likely a 7th inning reliever. Some people (notable among them Paul Depodesta) think there’s a #3SP in there. Either way, he’ll likely spend some time in Vegas this year, and open 2015 there, poised to make the jump to the majors that year.
(33)Darin Gorski. The velocity spike from Gorski’s breakout season has reversed itself, sadly, and with it, Gorski’s prospect status. Still, he’s got AA figured out, and should be first up in Vegas this season. Likely a reliever, he’s got reverse platoon splits and could make the majors this season.
St. Lucie Mets
(6)Steven Matz. Matz is a left hander who can run his fastball into the mid 90s, and reportedly touches higher. His changeup lags behind his breaking pitches, but he should finish this season in AA, and spend significant time in AAA in 2015. Likely a late season 2015/OD 2016 MLB candidate.
(9)Gabriel Ynoa. Ynoa doesn’t have the pure stuff of a Matz, but he has better command, think Rafael Montero vs Noah Syndergaard. Ynoa should be on a similar path as Matz, and Fulmer.
(8)Michael Fulmer. Fulmer’s struggled to right himself since tearing his meniscus last spring, and his first few starts this year have been downright ugly, but he’s still among our top pitching prospects. Featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball, and curveball, Fulmer’s floor is a good reliever, but his ceiling is a mid rotation workhorse. He should end 2014 in Binghamton, and be poised to join the Mets sometime in 2015.
(28)Domingo Tapia. Tapia’s future home is likely in the bullpen, but the Mets will keep him starting for now, so he is likely on the same career trajectory as the others in St. Lucie. Figure at some point, likely in 2015, he will be converted to relief, and will make his MLB debut in that role that year.
(22)Luis Cessa. Cessa is, stop me if this is getting repetitive, likely a future reliever, featuring a fastball in the low to mid 90s and lackluster secondaries at the moment. He will likely move a bit slower than Tapia, probably spending all of 2014 in St. Lucie, before splitting 2015 in Binghamton and AAA. He’s poised for a 2016 arrival in the majors.
Matt Koch. Koch has always been hittable despite having a good reputed arsenal. Whether BABIP or otherwise, this has been the case throughout his amateur and pro career. His future home is also in the bullpen, and his MLB arrival is 2015, like Tapia.
Savannah Sand Gnats
(18)Chris Flexen. Flexen is a big bodied RHSP who can get his fastball into the mid 90s, but sits low 90s, with good secondaries. He should ascend to St. Lucie at some point this season, likely before his 20th birthday, before opening 2015 in Binghamton. A conservative guess would have him poised to make the majors in 2017, or mid 2016 if you want to be a bit aggressive.
(21)Rob Whalen. Whalen’s stuff, I feel, would play up in a relief role, and his groundball tendency would also play up, along with it. Still, the Mets are likely going to keep Whalen starting, and he will (or should) be on the same trajectory as Flexen. If all goes well here, there’s a mid rotation workhorse who can pitch deep into games due to groundball tendencies.
Ricky Knapp. Knapp is a polished college strike thrower, in the Dillon Gee mold, he could come quickly. Still, with this conservative regime, I don’t feel good projecting any less than half seasons spent per level. (deGrom was an exception due to injury). He’s more likely to see the majors in 2016 than the two prep pitchers listed above him.
Kevin McGowan. McGowan is likely a future reliever with a good fastball/changeup combo, he could move quickly once the Mets shift him into a relief role. I’ll be a bit bold here and say he’ll make his MLB debut in the first half of 2016 out of the bullpen, maybe even out of camp.
Akeel Morris. Morris is a hard thrower, but with erratic control. He dials his fastball into the mid to upper 90s and has a good curveball, but is so young, that the Mets will afford him plenty of time to learn his craft. He probably is a level per year guy, so bank on his MLB debut sometime in 2017/2018.
