With a series loss to the Detroit Tigers over the weekend, the New York Mets fall to 57-54 on the season and slip nine games back in the National League East and two games behind Miami Marlins for the second Wild Card spot in the NL. If the Mets hope to make it to the playoffs, they must take advantage of their final 50 games in which they play both teams that are ahead and behind them in the standings.
They key to their final 50 games will be the 30 games in which they play six teams with a record of .500 or below. There is an old baseball axiom that goes something like this, “play .750 against the teams that are below .500 and play .500 against teams over .500 and you can succeed.” For a post season appearance, the Mets must take this axiom to heart.
In a three game series in April, the Mets swept the Cincinnati Reds. They hope to get the same result when they travel to Cincy in early September. The series will indeed be impactful, if not for their record but for newly acquired Jay Bruce. Bruce was traded by the Reds at the deadline to the Mets for a number of minor league prospects including Dilson Herrera. Bruce was a beloved member of the team and it will surely be an emotional return for the outfielder.
The Atlanta Braves are not good this season and it isn’t a surprise to anybody. Going into this season, analysts and fans expected a bottom or near bottom finish for the Braves. Because of these expectations, their record of 41-70 is no surprise. They stand 25 games back in the NL East and have no chance of making any come backs. The Mets have played them 13 times this season and come out triumphant in a seven out of thirteen. With this success has also come failure, in June, they were swept in a three game series by the Braves. If the Mets hope to secure a post season berth, they must capitalize on these games against sub-par teams.
The final team that the Mets have faced success with is the other basement team in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies started the season on a surprising strong note and even seemed like they could mount a strong challenge for the title. Unfortunately, their luck ran out and they have slowly but surely been slipping in the standings and now they are 15 games out with a record of 51-61. The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies on the season. In their final 52 games, the Mets play them nine times. These game will be crucial for the Mets and their post season dreams.
The next most important set of games for the Mets will be the 14 games they play against teams they have a winning record against or are even in wins and losses.
In early May, the Mets traveled to San Diego and split a four game series against the Padres. This series kicked off an 11 game west coast trip for the club. The Padres are another team that is having a disappointing season. After an off season in which they again made a number of moves in the hopes of building a winning team, they have fallen flat and now are 15 games back in the NL West with a record of 48-63. When the Padres come to Flushing at the end of the week, the Mets will hope to take advantage of a floundering team and pick up an important three wins.
The next team the Mets have had a modicum of success against is the San Francisco Giants. In late April, the Mets hosted the Giants for a three game series and took two of three against the team from the bay. The Giants are leading the NL West with a superb record of 64-48 and hold a half game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets will need to be on their A-game when they travel to San Francisco for a four game series in the middle of the month.
Perhaps the most important team the Mets have played well against, is their main contender in the NL East right now, is the Miami Marlins. The Mets gave won seven of the 13 games they have played against the fish this season. The Marlins are surprising the whole league by being in the playoff picture this late in the season. They have a record of 59-53 and are seven games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East. They also hold dual possession of the second wild card spot with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Mets will look to continue their winning ways against the Marlins in the remaining seven games they play against them.
The two series against the Marlins, in addition to their three games against the St. Louis Cardinals will prove to be the most critical for the Mets and their hopes of making another trip to the playoffs.
In three games against the Cardinals this season, the Mets have won just one game. The Cardinals hold second place in the NL Central with a record of 59-53. They trail the Chicago Cubs by 11 games and have a small chance of making up those games in the last part of the season. Because of this, they will be looking to secure a spot in the single game playoff for the wild card spot. Currently, they are tied with the Marlins who both hold a two game lead over the Mets for the second wild card spot. The Mets will visit the Cardinals for a three game series late in the month. To keep their playoff dreams alive, the Mets must win at least two of the three games.
The Nationals have proved to be the bane of the Mets existence this season. They have played 13 games against each other and the Nationals have come out victorious in nine of them. The Nationals occupy first place in the NL East with a record of 66-45. Finally, they have begun living up to the expectations that have been bestowed upon them these past two years. Last year, they were constantly underperforming and the Mets were able to capitalize on their failures and won the NL East title. This year, they have not had any such luck, the Nationals are playing great baseball and have been beating the teams they need to beat to lead the division. In the final six games they play against each other, the Mets must look to win at least four of them to help themselves and keep their season alive.
The Tigers own a record of 61-20 which is enough to secure them second place in the AL Central behind the Cleveland Indians tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the second AL Wild Card spot. A series in Detroit allowed the Mets an opportunity to get as much offense in their lineup, an offense that has been lacking in production. Unfortunately, the Mets were unable to capitalize on this added offense and dropped the opening two games of the series before they won their last game in Detroit.
As part of the six game home stand, the Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks for three games before they travel to their home field the following week for another three game series. The Mets have not played the D-Backs thus far in the season, so it is difficult to gauge how they will do against them. On the whole, the D-Backs are severely underperforming this season. At 45-66, Arizona is not living up to the lofty expectations that were set when they signed Zack Greinke in the off season and made a number of moves to bolster their offense. The Mets will look to capitalize on a team on the decline to secure some wins.
The Minnesota Twins will make the trip to Flushing in the middle of September. The Twins hold last place in the AL Central with a record of 46-66. Not much was expected of the Twins coming into the season and they have fulfilled the expectations bestowed upon them by most fans and analysts. The three game series against the Twins will be another good chance for the Mets to beat up on a team down in the dumps and improve their record.
It is crunch time for the Mets and it is critically important that they attack each game with everything they have. If they can capitalize on the lower rung of teams in the league, and play .500 baseball against the better teams, then the post season should be in their immediate future.
