OK … It’s Wednesday, May 9th and the Mets just batted out of order with a runner in scoring position, ending the inning. The Amazing’ go on to lose 2-1. I wish you could see my face right now and the steep angle at which my head is hanging …
There was more confusion in the second inning as Adrian Gonzalez led off with a single and the Reds thought that Bruce should have been hitting since he was next in the line-up. However, The punishment for batting out of order was the inning-ending out that was attributed to Jay Bruce (It’s ok Jay. We know that you did nothing wrong).
Ok, this isn’t what this article is about, but I had to put that out there. It does tie in though because this is a Mets update!
The Last 10
Here is the bad news. The Mets have dropped eight of their last 10 games when you include today’s 2-1 loss that might have been avoided had the correct piece of paper been issued to the officiating squad.
That said, it isn’t all bad. Even losing 80 percent of their last 10 games, the Mets are still above .500 and within kicking distance of the Nationals, Phillies, and Braves. The NL East might prove highly competitive this season, as everyone, accept for the mother-lovin’ Marlins is currently above .500.
Other than getting completely shut down by the Braves seven and eight games ago, the losses that came were close. Many —like Wednesday—were just one-run losses.
Coming up next we have a series against the Philadelphia Phillies who are currently second in the NL East. Getting a couple of wins off the Phils in Philadelphia will keep the Metsies in the cut.
The Mets and Matz vs. The Phils and Arrieta
The Metropolitans kickoff their three-game series with the Phillies this weekend on Friday at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Arrieta better look out. The Mets are 80% coming off one day of rest. The Metsies are also 11-7 as the away team. Another thing that could point to Mets win on Friday is the fact that I have a certain ERA vs. xFIP system that shows pitching regression. If the xFIP is 1.01 points or more than the ERA it means the Pitcher if they haven’t already been struggling are going to start. I use this system to make cash hand over fist at the best online baseball betting sites.
Jake Arrieta just happens to have an ERA of 3.15 and a decent WHIP of 1.08. But his xFIP is at 4.24 which qualifies him as a fade! The opposite is true for Steven Matz. At first glance, you see his ERA of 4.23 and 1.16 WHIP and think that the pitching advantage goes to the Phils in game one. But, Matz xFIP is3.78 which is actually leaning towards improved performance.
The sportsbooks in Vegas will list the Phillies as favorites in game one … but barring any batting order issues, the Mets are going to steal this game off the Phillies.
Thor vs. Eflin in Game 2
In game two, Zack Eflin is scheduled to start and his xFIP ratio is horrible. Sure you see that he has a 0.71 ERA but that is only due to sample size. His xFIP is 3.72 which is a full three points worse. He should be facing Noah Syndergaard, whose ERA is sitting at 3.09 but his xFIP is 2.96.
Jacob deGrom vs. Aaron Nola in Game 3
deGrom is pitching like a stud. He is 3-0 with a 1.87 ERA and .99 WHIP. He’ll be facing Aaron Nola who is also pitching like a boss at 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and .89 WHIP. But … once again the xFIP factor. Nola ERA to xFIP is 2.05 to 3.22. Again over a full point going the wrong way. Jacob deGrom is 1.87 to 2.57. He’s still under that 1.01 point mark the denotes regression.
See the pattern here? The Metsies will take 2 out of 3 from the home team.
