With the MLB Draft tonight at 7pm EST, it is time to take a look at players who could potentially become Mets. Last week I looked at four players who were connected to the Mets (you can read that here). Now that the draft is less than 12 hours away, I have created a list of the 10 players who are most likely to end up wearing the blue and orange tonight.
These players are listed in order from most likely to happen down to least likely. This list is not necessarily how I would rank the players, it is strictly based on the chances the Mets select the player.
Most of the following brief scouting reports are my own opinions, with ideas from sites like Baseball America and ESPN’s Draft Blog scattered in. All of the player comparisons are my own. I have watched almost all tape that is publicly available on these players as well.
1) DJ Peterson 1B New Mexico- Many sources are indicating that Peterson will be headed to New York with pick 11 unless someone else falls. I like Peterson more than most, however I do have some concerns about him. His is pretty small for a first baseman, but his swing is mechanically smooth and sound.
Another concern is that he plays in a hitters paradise with metal bats. I think this guy has legit power, but maybe not as much as he has been putting up in college. His defense will be good, but he will probably only be able to play 1st.
The most common player comparison I have hear for Peterson is Billy Butler. I think that DJ Peterson has a very similar style to Mets prospect Wilmer Flores, only with more power and range.
2) Dominic Smith 1B Serra HS (CA)– Another name that has been heavily linked to the Mets. If they go prep player, this is probably their guy. He is another kid that will be limited to 1st base, but he has the potential to be an impact bat. He has a great arm at 1st, and his range seems solid.
I think he has the most developed swing of all the high school players in the draft. However, Smith is probably 4 to 5 years away from the Majors.
I have heard Adrian Gonzalez comparisons, but like I said in my previous preview, if this kid pans out he could be the next Todd Helton. His offensive ability is that good.
3) Austin Meadows OF Grayson HS (GA)- Meadows has more raw talent than anyone in the draft, and the Mets would love to have him. The chances of him falling to 11 are not very high, but it is not out of the question either. If Meadows is there at 11, sources indicate the Mets will not pass him up. Meadows is the prototypical 5 tool high school outfielder. He has all the raw talent in the world, but scouts say he has not put it all together yet.
His swing is a little choppy but it does look correctable. I believe that Meadows will hit for power, play good defense and steal bases, but I’m just not sure he will hold a high average. Meadows is a center fielder now but may move to left in the future.
Meadows most reminds me of a young Matt Den Dekker with the potential to be a Grady Sizemore type player if he can improve his hit tool. Meadows is pictured on the far right above.
4) Hunter Renfroe OF Mississippi State- Renfroe did next to nothing his first two years in college. He came around big time this year though. The one year wonder has massive power, a solid arm and some speed to his game. Renfroe is pretty much a boom or bust pick to me, as I can not get a solid read on if his swing will play in the Majors.
The Mets are rumored to like Renfroe’s ceiling, and his name has been tossed around in many mock drafts.
Renfroe has been compared to another Hunter, Hunter Pence. I see him as a young Jeff Francouer, the Francouer that was a solid to good player in his first few years with Atlanta.
5) Ryne Stanek RHP Arkansas- Stanek’s name has been brought up as a possibility for the Mets by more than just a few analysts. While he has a great mound presence, I just do not see quality pitches from Stanek consistently. This is something he needs to work on. Last weekend his fastball was sitting around 89, which is not something I like to see from a top 15 pick. He walked 6 batters but ended up going 8 innings giving up only a run. When he doesn’t have his best stuff, he still finds ways to get it done.
He does have a knack for pitching well in the big games, as I have seen him do it several times against my favorite team LSU. Although, the more and more I look at Stanek, the more safe I feel about potentially picking him. I think he is probably the safest pick in the draft, but his ceiling just is not as high.
I see Stanek as a rich man’s version of Dillon Gee. Better mound presence, and a little bit of better stuff. He could be a great innings eater in the middle of a rotation, and he could reach the big leagues fast.
6) Braden Shipley RHP Nevada- Another guy who will most likely be gone when the Mets pick. Has a big time arm and a great fastball. Came to Nevada as a position player but has transitioned to the mound. I would consider him fairly raw for a college player as he has only been pitching for a few seasons, but he certainly has ace potential if he improves his secondary pitches. He also pitched in a hitter’s environment and still put up great numbers.
Shipley reminds me of a young John Maine in that he has a nice fastball, but he really needs to work on his breaking stuff if he wants to be a frontline pitcher. (I always thought Maine’s fastball was great when he was healthy and right).
7) Aaron Judge OF Fresno State- Jon Heyman recently mentioned his name with the Mets. Judge stands six feet and seven inches tall, and 255 pounds. He has massive power potential, but has yet to tap into it.
People think he could be the Stanton of this draft, but I do not see it. He started to hit more homers this season, but if you have not tapped into your power yet at this state, you may never.
As easily as I could be wrong and Judge becomes a 40HR threat, he could just as easily become Kyle Blanks. I would not be too disappointed with a Judge pick though, but it would be a swing for the fences by the Mets.
8) JP Crawford SS Westlake HS (CA)- Mets liked him early, but rumors have died down. Crawford screams Gavin Cecchini clone. Shortstops are valuable to have, but drafting Crawford a year after Gavin would be dumb to me. Crawford has a nice swing and instincts for a high school player, but he is also far, far away from the Majors.
Crawford’s high school is known for producing MLB draftees. Both Lucas Giolito and Max Fried were drafted in the first from Westlake last season.
Other than Gavin Cecchini, I can’t think of a reasonable comparison for JP Crawford because of how far away he is.
9) Clint Frazier OF Loganville HS (GA)- I think the Frazier is actually better than Austin Meadows, but he is also less likely to be available than Meadows. The two grew up as friends playing for rival schools. Frazier has the quickest bat I have ever seen for a high school player, and it translates into power.
He also has great speed and comes from a good family. Frazier is also a five tool player, but he has more power and less speed than Meadows. It is also important to note that Frazier has fiery red hair that would rival Justin Turner’s. Frazier is pictured on the left above.
Frazier has been compared to Andrew McCutchen, but I see him more along the lines of his teammate, Starling Marte. If Frazier somehow slips (which Keith Law predicts he will), the Mets should rush to the podium to select him.
10) Phil Ervin OF Samford– The Mets were also tied to Ervin early in the process. Ervin is a personal favorite of mine, but he would be a slight reach at pick 11. Short, stout and speedy. Ervin will be a center fielder in the MLB who will steal a ton of bases and hit for some power.
He comes from a small college program and his swing needs work, but I honestly would not mind this pick.
Ervin reminds me of Gary Brown, OF prospect for the Giants, who we almost acquired instead of Zack Wheeler. He will for sure stick in CF.
Honorable Mentions: Austin Wilson OF Stanford, Reese McGuire C Washington HS
Tomorrow night will be interesting because this draft can play out so many ways. Most of what the Mets do is going to depend on how the draft unfolds in front of them. With my luck the Mets will reach off this list, but if I was a gambler, I would certainly bet on Selig calling one of these names when it is the Mets’ turn to pick.
